The life insurance business has also struggled on 3 fronts, lower premium vs. previous years, variable income as a result of adjustments in prepayment rates, and changes in policy reserves as a result of changes in mortality assumptions and actuarial assumptions. The fixed annuity business is in-runoff and is not material. The Canadian and Australian Mortgage Insurance units (Australia MI and Canada MI, respectively) are extremely important as they pay significant dividends to the holding company GNW. In FY2016, these units contributed $225 million of dividends to GNW. In 2016, these were the only two units to pay dividends to GNW. US mortgage insurance operating company USMI has been performing very strongly as operating income and new insurance written has increased 40% and 35%, respectively, compared to 2015. This unit is expected to start paying dividends in 2018 and is considered the crown jewel within the company. The credit rating agencies, S&P and Egan Jones, rate the company B and BB, respectively. While there is no doubt the company has a weak credit and is credit risky, the primary reason for their low rating is that they take a long-term view of credit and they view the LTC business as likely to suffer once isolated from the rest of the company's operations should a merger with COH go through. While this is true, and clearly highlights the weakness in the name from a long-term credit point of view, from the point of view of an investor in shorter dated debt, the cash-infusion from COH reduces the near-term liquidity risk by reducing the contagion effect from the US life insurance business on the rest of the company. COH Acquisition and GNW Liquidity Position: GNW reported cash and liquid assets of $1.1B as of Q4 2016 at the holding company level. Source: Genworth Q4 2016 Earning Summary Presentation COH is expected to acquire GNW for $1.125B of cash of which $600M will be used to cover GNW 2018 bond maturity while $525M will be used to legally separate GLIC from GLAIC, allowing GNW to access dividends from GLAIC. Once the 2018 maturity is repaid, the company does not have outstanding debt due until June 2020 ($805M) and 2021 ($1.3B). The bar chart below shows the company's debt repayment profile. If the acquisition goes through, the company should comfortably have the funds to pay the 2020 maturity as dividends from the LTC business will no longer be trapped, and the US MI business will begin paying dividends. Source: Own analysis based on debt outstanding Valuation: As explained above, if the deal with COH goes through as expected, then GNW should have sufficient liquidity to meet debt due until the 2021 maturity. The valuation plot below shows all GNW bonds plotted with left hand x-axis showing option-adjusted spread (OAS) and the right-hand axis showing duration. As can be seen in the plot below, the 2018, 2020 and 2021 bonds are trading cheap to the issuer's own credit curve. The 2018 bonds trade at an OAS of 502 bps, the 2020 at an OAS of 634 bps, and 2021 at an OAS of 700 bps.
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