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EDT Dows 4,400-point rally in a year and a half has Wall Street debating the stock markets next move Dow Jones Industrial Averages is up nearly 30% over past 6 quartersits best stretch since 2006 Want to see how this story relates to your watchlist? Just add items to create a watchlist now: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Add AFP/Getty Images Which way are markets headed? All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure, according to the eminently quotable Samuel Clemens, a.k.a. Mark Twain. That may be the dynamic Wall Street has been applying lately. Confidence in some realms doesnt appear to be in short supply. Indeed, a reading of consumer confidence in March soared to its highest level in more than 16 years. Margin debt, or the amount stock-market investors borrowed against their brokerage accounts, pledging some of their holdings as collateral, hit an all-time high in February, extending a record set in January . High margin levels can be a sign of growing optimism. Read: Why soaring consumer confidence should worry investors And there appears to be no paucity of ignorance, either, at least if defined in terms of uncertainty about the direction of the market. Investors continue to debate the likelihood of a continued advance in stocks against that of a near-term selloff, following the accelerated rise of the major benchmarks in the wake of President Donald Trumps election victory in November. Check out: Heres why its getting harder to ignore rising subprime auto defaults Against that backdrop, Clemens might say its no surprise the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime COMP -0.04% booked its 21st record close of 2017 on Thursday. The tech-heavy gauge has registered 29 all-time closing highs since November, according to Dow Jones data. (On Friday, the gauge ended in negative territory ) Moreover, the Nasdaq booked its biggest quarterly advancemore than 530 points for about a 10% gainsince the fourth quarter of 2013. And since the Nov. 8 election fueled hopes for a package of market-friendly policies, the index has advanced nearly 14%. The broad-market S&P 500 index /quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime SPX -0.23% also registered its best quarter since the last three months of 2013, with a 5.5% rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449/realtime DJIA -0.31% is on track for its longest streak of winning quarters. In fact, the Dow has climbed nearly 4,400 points, or about 30%, over the past six quarters, marking its best six-quarter advance since 2006. See: The Dow is about to do something it hasnt done in 10 years Despite those moves, or perhaps because of them, some investors seem more hazy than usual about the direction the market takes from here, especially since by at least one measure stocks are trading at their most expensive levels since 2004. Given the fact that valuations are at the very high end of normal and on the edge of expensive, theres still room for people to change their mind about the market, John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds, told MarketWatch.
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